The past three weeks have seen an interesting amount of activity on the question of peace in South Sudan . It all started with the meeetings organized by President Museveni in Kampala to try to reconcile/reunite the various strands of the SPLM. Everybody agreed that it would be a good idea but the enthusiasm was limited particularly when on July 21st the Troïka countries (the US , Great Britain and Norway) decided to suspend their financial help for the implementation (which implementation ?) of the August 27th 2015 Peace Agreement . On that same day , the same Troïka countries warned the South sudanese government that blocking information news website did not seem very coherent with trying to achieve National Dialogue , Peace & Reconciliation . These were the last dying gasps of the official , traditional , diplomatic peace process . After two years of agony , nobody was taking it very seriously any more . And among those who did not , was President Museveni himself . He had just welcomed in Kampala a vital delegation consisting of Kuol Manyang Juuk (Defense) , Speical Envoy Nhial Deng Nhial , Mrs Rebecca Nyandeng , widow of JohnGarang , former Chief of Staff Oyai Deng Ajak , Former minister Kosti Manibe , John Luk and SPLM Acting Secretary General Jemma Nunu Kumba . Coming from Juba full of his own importance and quite ready for extreme measures , the President Himself , who had the day before proclaimed a state of Emergency over lage parts of South Sudanese territory . There the scenario was not any more trying to “revive” or “revitalize” the dead body of the Peace Agreement . Museveni had a much bolder idea : organize elections , gently accompany Salva Kiir to the exit door and promote Mrs Garang as a unity candidate for the Presidency . She has all what is needed : she is a Dinka , a respected person , the widow of the Great Man , she strongly dislikes Salva Kiir , her own son is in SPLA-IO , seriously so , not Quisling-like in the mode of Taban Deng Gai and she could drag behind her Deng Oyai Ajak as SPLA (Sorry : SSDF) Chief-of Staff . Such a unity candidate would blind some of the fears of the ordinary population . Of course there are many obstacles :
- How convinced is Salva Kiir that being showed the door is the best strategy ?
- What is going to be left of the government’s army after it knocks over the Maiwut/Pagak defensive area ? Victory could be more destructive than defeat since the Army will be the roayal path to power for whoever can get control of it . Could an M7/Rebecca team actually succeed to do it ?
- The Troïka and international community in general will be a bit shocked by such cavalier lack of principles
But nothing succeeds like success . Right now the IGAD/AU mediation has produced absolutely nothing . The question will be how does the Ugandan president’s bright new idea takes off the ground ? The first few metres of the taking off will be the hardest and it might all end up there and then . But if the ungainly thing actually starts moving , the international community , which is brain dead on South Sudan , might be seduced into such a scheme which has at least one advantage : it exists . Now , whether it will succeed, that is quite a different cup of tea .